Public-interest signal transparency

SignalTrail

A simple public dashboard for masked Telegram trader observations, sample-size context, and historical quality signals.

Not investment advice. Example data is masked and aggregated for public viewing.

Methodology Publication policy

What this page shows

Masked trader aliases, channel-level aggregates, and a quick read on win rate, target/stop balance, and expectancy.

Sample breakdown

Author → stock → days → target/stop outcome

Leaderboard

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What the metrics mean Plain-English guide to the public v2-style snapshot Open to read

Messages scanned

Total Telegram messages ingested in the backfill window before parsing.

Parsed calls

Messages the parser could turn into actionable stock calls or setups.

Outcome rows

All evaluated result rows, including multiple horizons and method types.

Call win %

Share of calls that ended as wins at the call level after resolution.

Resolved win %

Win rate after excluding unresolved or incomplete cases from the denominator.

Row win %

Win rate across every evaluated row, including horizon-based rows.

Target/stop win %

How often a full trade plan hit target before stop when both levels were available.

Directional win %

Directional edge against the benchmark when the parser had to fall back to horizon-based evaluation.

Bayes win %

Shrinkage-adjusted win rate that softens small-sample spikes.

Avg return

Average percentage return for resolved calls; positive means the sample made money on average.

Profit factor

Gross wins divided by gross losses; above 1.0 is better, higher is stronger.

Confidence

Sample-size label that tells you how much trust to place in the row.